MARKET SNAPSHOT
- Clara Leung
- 3 days ago
- 5 min read
Thursday, 5 March 2026
Latest news from the meat market
This fortnight has seen a lot of commentary about both the impacts of China’s tariffs as Australia gets closer to hitting the quota, and how Australian producers are reacting to various geopolitical factors in play. We’re also seeing data from the Australian pork industry, so keep reading to take a deeper dive into what these stats mean for the domestic foodservice market.
BEEF
Current world issues at play and weather affecting livestock performance means global beef supply is forecasted to contract in 2026, with Australia a central player in filling the gap. Domestically, cattle slaughter continues at an upward trend, capitalising on strong global demand from our export markets.
The US herd remains in decline and latest figures from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts US beef production to fall another 0.4% in 2026. Beef exports from the US are expected to decline a further 15% this year as tighter domestic beef supplies and higher prices limit the volume of beef shipped to international markets.
Read more in MLA’s Weekly cattle and sheep market wrap
Read more in USDA’s Livestock and Poultry Outlook
Australian beef producers now face a decision between:
Capitalising on strong global demand while supply is limited.
Rebuilding their herd after years of record slaughter and challenging feeding conditions.
Both scenarios mean that cattle prices are likely to increase in 2026 as supply becomes tighter, which will in turn maintain pressure on domestic beef pricing.
In other export markets, China continues to navigate its own herd decline, with the number of cattle forecasted to fall to levels not seen since 2011. China’s beef consumption has increased by 70% over the past 10 years, and imports accounted for 25% of China’s beef supply in 2025. These recent tariff measures are seen as an attempt to manage import volumes and remain self-sufficient, which means having 85% of beef and mutton produced domestically.
Ultimately the question will lie on whether Chinese consumers will willingly move away from their growing interest in premium beef as a protein source.
Brazil is another key player in the export market that is increasing their cattle production across lean and premium categories. In the middle of 2025 it earned status as foot-and-mouth disease free, and since then Brazil has been targeting Japan and Korea, markets that Australia and the US have had exclusive access to for years.
That said, indicators show that the Brazilian herd is due for a natural herd rebuild phase with USDA predicting that their beef production will fall by over 5% in 2026. Brazilian producers are also facing the same choices as Australian producers, taking advantage of current global demand and subsequent higher prices for beef or rebuilding their own herd after years of high production.
Read more in ANZ’s Agri InFocus Commodity Insights
Learn more in this episode of The Weekly Grill podcast
What this means for Australian foodservice
No forecasted changes in the short-term, however export demand will remain the key driver for domestic pricing and supply.
LAMB
The reduced throughput of lamb in both the saleyards and abattoirs across the nation continues as national lamb yardings fell by 5.2% week-on-week and our sheep and lamb slaughter levels fell by 16% from this time last year.
Read more in MLA’s Weekly cattle and sheep market wrap
At the same time international demand remains strong and the current types of lambs being produced reflect the demand. Looking specifically at the US, lamb will once again cop a global 10% tariff, which is still the same rate as the previous program, that was removed by the Supreme High Court late last month. Ultimately, we will see little to no changes with export volume going into the US because of these new global tariffs, as trading conditions remain the same as 2025.
Read more in ANZ’s Agri InFocus Commodity Insights
Learn more in this episode of The Weekly Grill podcast
What this means for Australian foodservice
Lower lamb volumes and sustained export demand means that lamb supply and pricing remains under pressure in the domestic markets, especially in the premium lamb sector. There are no forecasted short-term changes to availability or pricing, but please remain close to your sales representative as the sector is susceptible to global shifts.
PORK
Pork continues to play an important role in Australia. Domestically, pork is the second highest consumed protein (second to chicken), and that is only expected to increase to 27.5kg per capita as households continue to make the switch to lower-cost proteins due to ongoing economic pressures. Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that pig slaughter and pig meat production has decreased by approximately 1% in Dec 2025.
At the same time Dec 2025 exports of Australian pork still sits 6.5% higher YOY (see below graph). Australia is reliant on imports to sustain domestic demand. The global pork supply, however, is characterised by uneven production growth and the continued impact of African Swine Fever across key pig producing regions, reflected in our 5.4% decrease in 2025’s pork imports.
What this means for Australian foodservice
Pork remains in high demand domestically, particularly Australian pork, and supply will be tight in the short-term.
LOOKING AHEAD
A note about the Middle East conflict
The conflict in the Middle East will impact Australian agriculture and its supply chain, with disruptions already evident to premium protein exports, as shipping routes and airspace shut in the region. While the Middle East takes in relatively small volumes of beef and lamb from Australia (in comparison to China or the US), they important a significant amount of high-end premium product, with Dubai being a core hub for premium Australian grainfed beef. The associated issue is that the Middle East is a key producer of oil and fertiliser. The situation is extremely volatile and there is no telling how long this may last, but the longer it goes on the greater potential impact.
Read more at BeefCentral and SheepCentral
Read more at S&P Global
We’ll continue to track these shifts and translate them into insight for your venues.
For additional assistance or information, please speak to our sales team.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this blog is provided for general informational purposes only. While Andrews Meat Industries has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors — including environmental and seasonal conditions — can impact its accuracy and currency. For tailored advice relating to your business, please contact your Andrews Meat Industries sales representative.
