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MARKET SNAPSHOT

  • Clara Leung
  • Feb 5
  • 4 min read

Thursday, 5 February 2026


Latest news from the meat market

Geopolitics, herd dynamics and global demand continue to make movement in Australian domestic protein supply. Scan through our annotated snapshot of the latest news shaping Australian beef and lamb markets below for an insight on what these factors mean for the domestic foodservice sector.

 

BEEF

Australian cattle slaughter is tracking 2% higher year-on-year, suggesting processing capacity remains stable despite recent climactic challenges. The Australian dollar has made some gains on the US dollar since January, which may give pause to some markets when weighing up Australian beef against other options.

 

Despite the above, latest data from the US shows that their cattle slaughter has fallen by around 11% to its lowest level since 2015. The ongoing destock means less domestic US lean manufacturing beef (trim), which suggests anticipated increased reliance by the US on imports from Australia and other countries, and subsequent pressure on Australian domestic demand.


Source: USDA, MLA


Despite the overall decline in slaughter, the female slaughter rate ended 2025 at 48.8%. This is well above the normal baseline of 47% and suggests the US cattle herd remains in destocking mode. Looking ahead, US production is unlikely to substantially increase until the herd has significantly rebuilt.

  • Read more at MLA.

 

NOTE: It is conventionally understood that herd rebuild occurs when the Female Slaughter Rate (FSR) is below 47%. When this occurs, producers retain female cattle for breeding, which will reduce the immediate supply of beef but increases future herd size and production capacity. This typically occurs during periods of strong seasonal conditions.


The US now purchases around 25% of Australia’s beef exports. While China’s trade barriers have presented some headwinds to Australian beef exports, demand from Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia and the Middle East continues to absorb volume nonetheless. Export demand shows little sign of abating, reinforcing competition for Australian beef across global markets.


As higher-value beef is directed offshore, domestic availability of particularly grass-fed but also grain-fed beef tightens. Premium primals tend to become harder to source relative to secondary cuts such as oyster blade, skirt or brisket. Rather than livestock shortages, the record prices being seen in the supermarket sector are being driven by export competition and sustained rising input costs (such as feed, labour and logistics). Consequently, any typical seasonal softening has been largely offset by global demand.


What this means for Australian foodservice

Beef prices continue to remain firm, with global constraints, particularly in the US, keeping demand elevated. Even with a stronger Australian dollar, market competition for Australian beef and trim remains intense which is therefore flowing through into more demand for raw primals. For foodservice, this means ongoing market fluctuations, similar to what we have experienced in 2025. Stay close to your sales representative for assistance and insight to plan your menus accordingly.


LAMB

On the back of difficult conditions in our prime southern producing regions continuing through 2025, lamb markets lifted 3–6% as saleyard numbers tightened. Lamb slaughter increased to 10% higher than the same period in 2024, but remains below 2025’s peaks, consistent with tighter end-of-cycle supply. This reduced throughput is likely to translate into higher pricing further down the chain, reinforcing the supply-driven nature of the current lamb market.

 

Global sheep and lamb supply is dominated by Australia and New Zealand; but with subdued production in both countries, the market remains tight as flock rebuilding continues through 2026. Australia’s national sheep flock fell approximately 6% while in New Zealand sheepmeat production declined by around 6% last year. Combined exports from both Australia and New Zealand are down 5%, tightening overall global availability. Furthermore, reduced NZ production is anticipated to increase reliance on Australia for global lamb supply, affecting domestic availability of premium lamb.

 

What this means for Australian foodservice

Australia supplies over 50% of the world’s lamb and international demand shows no sign of slowing/reducing. Flock rebuilding in Australia and New Zealand, firm export demand and tighter saleyard supply mean pricing pressure is unlikely to ease in the coming months. Foodservice venues should anticipate tight pricing, particularly for popular cuts, with little change anticipated through the coming months.

 

LOOKING AHEAD

 A note on geopolitics and Australia’s agriculture industry

Geopolitics will be the major player for Australia’s agricultural industry as we head into 2026. Australia is still in a position of strength with meat exports remaining resilient despite tariffs and global friction. Other input costs that Australia typically imports, such as diesel, remain elevated, which adds pressure to our primary production.

 

We’ll continue to track these shifts and translate them into insight for your venues. Watch our blog for updates once a fortnight and for additional assistance or information, please speak to our sales team.


Disclaimer: The information contained in this blog is provided for general informational purposes only. While Andrews Meat Industries has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors — including environmental and seasonal conditions — can impact its accuracy and currency. For tailored advice relating to your business, please contact your Andrews Meat Industries sales representative.

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