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MARKET SNAPSHOT

  • Clara Leung
  • Feb 19
  • 5 min read

Thursday, 19 February 2026


Latest news from the meat market


This fortnight has seen a lot of movement, particularly in the lamb sector with pricing and supply fluctuating throughout the start of 2026. Additionally, recent weather events across the nation and the impact they had on our beef and lamb producers are now starting to be more fully reported.

 

LAMB

Lamb supply in both Australia and New Zealand (our major lamb export competitor) continues to contract sharply while demand from overseas markets remains firm. The seasonal spring flush has passed and the market is now adjusting to the tighter supply. Recent lamb yarding indices (which measures the volume of lamb available in saleyards) and price shifts in the various national lamb indicators are beginning to better articulate the situation.

 

Throughout January, the volume of lamb going through the saleyards has decreased across all Australian states, with drastic falls coming from some of our main lamb producing regions, Victoria (down from 95% to 58%) and South Australia (down from 82% to 36%) as compared to December 2025.

 

 A note about lamb indicators from Meat & Livestock Australia:

➣ The National Trade Lamb Indicator (NTLI): represents lamb destined for the domestic market, and includes all lambs weighing between 20–26kg, where the ‘ideal’ Australian lamb carcass weight is 24kg.

➣ The National Light Lamb Indicator: represent lambs that go into domestic and export markets (e.g. Middle East and the UK which have demand for lower carcase weights), encompassing lambs between 12-20kg.

➣ The National Heavy Lamb Indicator: is specifically for export markets (typically for the US which prefers a heavier carcase to as compared to Australia), representing lambs that are 26kg+.

 

 

 

Australian sheep and lamb processors could close earlier, as early as March, for their annual maintenance and for longer periods of time. With all the volume decreases at the lamb saleyards and subsequently greater competition over what is available, processors are now weighing up operational and raw material costs against the return in domestic and export markets. Strong demand from export markets (particularly the US) means that the price of lamb is predicted to increase, but at the same time that market can no longer sustain such high prices. This puts the processors in a position of having to absorb the costs and lower their own margins to get sales across the line. According to some processors “there is not a single lamb plant in Australia that is making money at the moment”, as they grapple with having to outcompete smaller operators for supply, while maintaining their current workforce that was expanded back when sheep and lamb supply was higher and the numbers were justified.

 

 

 

What this means for Australian foodservice

All markets have been impacted by low volumes of lamb and weather disruptions. In the retail space lamb has had the highest growth in pricing, however the percentage growth in saleyard pricing on the producers’ end still far outstrips retail pricing of lamb. For the foreseeable future, lamb prices will likely remain under pressure as the domestic market shifts to be more in line with saleyard prices, particularly for premium lamb.

 

  

BEEF

Cattle prices are currently sitting at 2.5% above the five-year average and 19% above the ten-year average. There was a small decline in prices in January which was driven by a flush of supply following the recent weather events in the Queensland and Victoria, leading producers to sell their stock. With the export market absorbing much of the excess supply, however, we anticipate that prices on the domestic market will remain unchanged but at least should remain stable for a time.

 

Despite the current geopolitical tensions, Australia’s national beef exports broke the typical January volume record, rising 4% above Jan 2025 (a year that was already coined one of the best for Australia exports). As we’ve discussed previously, the main recipients of Australian beef remain as the US and China. In addition to those powerhouses, there was a strong growth in the South Korean market (up 24% from Jan last year). South Korea typically imports their beef from the US, and with reduced supply available from that front, we predict that South Korea will continue to source beef from Australia to make up the difference.

 

 

 

The US cattle inventory is also of concern, given that it is at its lowest level in 75 years, and we are now starting to see the impact as US beef prices are outpacing grocery inflation in their supermarkets. An interesting conversation broke out on LinkedIn recently regarding this factor and what it might mean for Aussie beef.

 

 

 

What this means for Australian foodservice

No forecasted changes in the short-term or long-term for pricing or availability for domestic foodservice. Watch this space, however, as the Australia gets closer to hitting the Chinese tariff quota, predicted to be around mid-year.

 

➣ At a broader agriculture level, this recent 15 minute podcast episode from CommBank gives some easy-listening context around the impact of tariffs on trade and what’s happening with Australia’s Chinese beef trade.

 

 

CHICKEN

Looking back on 2025 and into early 2026, we can see the beginnings of supermarkets and quick-service restaurants (QSR) taking up a larger share of the poultry supply, with retail sales in Australia going “up by more than 16% on the comparative period, while sales through QSR were almost 9% higher” for some poultry processors. This is supported by the fact that chicken is Australia’s top-consumed protein, as we are expected to consume over 55kg of chicken in 2026, compared to beef’s predicted 29kg per person.

 

 

 

What this means for Australian foodservice

Supply will vary in the coming months as domestic markets adjust to the growing share taken up by supermarkets and QSR. Chicken meat in general along the Australian eastern seaboard is seeing some delays in production due to bird shortages which is affecting supply from time to time, particularly on less standard lines. Keep close with your sales rep and this blog to stay up-to-date.

 

 

LOOKING AHEAD

A note on US farmer sentiment

According to the Purdue University/CME Group’s Ag Economy Barometer, US farmer sentiment has weakened falling 23 points from December of last year. The largest shift was in the producers’ long-term outlook for US agriculture, and this particular index measures US producers’ expectations are for “widespread good and bad times over the next five years”, which fell to its lowest point since 2024. US producers expect conditions to worsen over the next 12 months, making it evident that there will continue to be demand for both lamb and beef going into the US in the long-term.

 

 

 

We’ll continue to track these shifts and translate them into insight for your venues.

For additional assistance or information, please speak to our sales team.


Disclaimer: The information contained in this blog is provided for general informational purposes only. While Andrews Meat Industries has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors — including environmental and seasonal conditions — can impact its accuracy and currency. For tailored advice relating to your business, please contact your Andrews Meat Industries sales representative.

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