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MARKET SNAPSHOT

  • Clara Leung
  • 4 hours ago
  • 4 min read

Thursday, 2 April 2026


Latest market conditions


UPDATE ON PETROLEUM SUPPLY FROM PETER ANDREWS


“We are continuing to monitor the impact of rising petroleum costs. As well as all of our freight forwarders initiating policies of weekly fuel levy adjustments, the shortage is now starting to flow through into our supply of everyday items such as packaging and PPE.

 

At the time of writing, we are still absorbing these increased costs, but please be aware that we will be implementing a petroleum levy at some point in the near future, and will update customers as soon as that decision has been made to allow as much time as possible.”

 


Outside of the national fuel shortage, it was a big fortnight for red meat. The Australia – EU Free Trade Agreement was signed and the industry research and development body, Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), released its 2026 projections for cattle and sheep.

 

We break down below what these developments could mean for domestic foodservice.

 

BEEF

 

Key points from MLA’s Industry Projections for Australian cattle:

  • Currently experiencing Australia’s highest slaughter rates since 1970s

  • Beef production forecasted to rise 4% in 2026

  • Exports forecasted to rise to 2.3 million tonnes cwt in 2026 (up from 1.5 million tonnes in 2025)

 

What this means for Australian foodservice

No forecasted changes in the short-term for beef availability or pricing. Strong export demand, high processing volumes and global supply constraints will continue to underpin any tightening of the domestic beef market.


Australia’s cattle sector is coming off one of the strongest production periods in decades, with 2025 delivering the highest slaughter, production and export volumes since the 1970s. That momentum is expected to carry into 2026, with production forecast to rise again and exports set to follow.

 

The herd level is forecast to sit just above 30 million head in 2026, supported by strong seasonal conditions in the north. However, the story isn’t the same in southern parts of Australia, which continues to face prolonged dry conditions. Despite this, processing capacity remains high as cattle move from northern production regions to southern processors, helping drive processing capacity.

 

Globally, supply remains tight as the United States continues to operate with historically low herd numbers, driving demand for Australian beef on the international market. At the same time, a stronger Australian dollar is slightly reducing export competitiveness, although this is being offset by similar currency movements in competing nations, most notably Brazil.

 

Looking ahead, the key watchpoint for the beef sector will be the pricing and availability of fuel. It remains to be seen how this will on the one hand impact the flow of cattle from north to south, and on the other impact access to fertiliser and therefore availability of livestock feed.

 

 

  • Read more at MLA



LAMB

 

Key points from MLA’s Industry Projections for Australian sheep & lamb:

  • Challenging seasonal conditions continue to weigh on the overall flock.

  • Export conditions remain mixed, although tighter global supply (especially from New Zealand) continues to drive demand for Australian lamb.

  • Lamb slaughter is forecast to decline approximately 11% in 2026, and therefore lamb production is forecast to decline approximately 10%.

 

What this means for Australian foodservice

While there are no forecasted short-term changes to lamb availability or pricing, domestic lamb supply remains tight with reduced flock numbers, lower slaughter rates and strong export demand continuing to impact the market.


Stay in touch with your Andrews Meat sales representative, and let us know if you are needing higher than usual volume. 

 

The lamb sector’s supply is tightening following several years of elevated turn-off and ongoing seasonal challenges across the southern Australian production regions. The national flock is forecast to decline, reflecting the impact of three years of below-average rainfall in key lamb producing regions in the south. While some regions have seen short-term relief earlier this year, persistent feed and water constraints continue to shape producer decisions, limiting the ability to rebuild flocks at pace, and particularly for the more premium lamb grades.

 

Lamb slaughter is expected to fall sharply again in 2026, down 11% year-on-year, as a direct result of reduced flock numbers and the earlier turn-off of breeding stock. Despite lower throughput, heavier carcase weights, driven by improvements in genetics and feeding, are helping to support overall production volumes.

 

At a global scale, New Zealand’s flock continues to contract, limiting its export capacity and placing additional pressure on Australian supply to meet international demand. At the same time, ongoing uncertainty across key export markets, including the US and the Middle East, adds another layer of complexity to demand patterns.

 

Looking forward, any meaningful rebuild of the Australian flock is likely to be gradual. Forecasted dry conditions through the second half of 2026 are expected to delay recovery, meaning supply constraints will continue this year.

 

 

  • Read more at MLA

 


LOOKING AHEAD

A note about the Australian-European Union Free Trade Agreement

 

On 24 March 2026, Australia and the European Union concluded negotiations for the Australia‑EU Free Trade Agreement (A‑EU FTA), removing tariffs on a wide range of agricultural goods, including beef and lamb. Though many in the ag sector are disappointed in the overall outcome of the FTA, incremental increases in quota access have been achieved per below:

 

  1. Beef: A complicated picture. While the new 30,600 tonne quota achieved is an approximately eight-fold increase on Australia's previous access, that tonnage only comes into effect in 2032. The new figure is far short of the 50,000 tonne Australia’s competitors had achieved, and also adds a 7.5% tariff on Australian grain fed beef.


  2. Sheep and goatmeat: 25,000 tonnes (cwe) over 7 years – an increase on our previous levels, but by comparison far short of New Zealand’s 163,769 tonnes.

 

  • Read more at the DFAT

 

  • Read more on MLA

 

 


Disclaimer: The information contained in this blog is provided for general informational purposes only. While Andrews Meat Industries has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors — including environmental and seasonal conditions — can impact its accuracy and currency. For tailored advice relating to your business, please contact your Andrews Meat Industries sales representative.

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