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MARKET SNAPSHOT

  • Clara Leung
  • 1 day ago
  • 3 min read

Thursday, 14 May 2026


Latest meat market conditions


Beef production volumes are increasing with more volume flowing into export markets, while lamb production is falling after sustained periods of difficult conditions in growing regions.



BEEF


 The appetiser – what the market means for foodservice

Sub-par seasonal conditions are increasing the volume of beef production. Strong global demand, for the most part, is absorbing the higher volume, and so domestic supply capacity remains unchanged.


The mains

Drier conditions in northern NSW saw a large increase in volume going through saleyards, however demand from Australia’s key trade partners continues to grow year-on-year and remains strong enough to absorb the additional supply (see below graph). RaboResearch expects cattle prices are expected to stabilise, after the April turn-off, and potentially lift in the short-term.

 


Industry insiders are watching:

  1.  The US - Volume exported to the US lifted 10% YOY, supported by limited domestic supply in the US and strong consumer demand, which is predicted to remain and keep US domestic beef prices high through till the end of the year, keeping their market open to importing more Australian beef.

  2. China - Export volumes also increased 37%, but Australia is about to hit its quota which will adjust the training environment.

  3. Brazil - Dry conditions throughout 2025 in Brazil is boosting their beef production. Additionally, Brazil’s inflation has reduced their domestic demand, creating a greater exportable beef supply. The longer-term outlook is that elevated Brazilian export volumes will likely subside towards the end of the year as favourable seasonal conditions in Brazil are encouraging a herd rebuild.

 

 


LAMB

 

The appetiser – what the market means for foodservice

Lamb production volumes continue to fall which means that lamb remains under pressure for domestic foodservice. While there are no forecasted changes to availability or pricing in the short-term, please remain close to your sales representative as conditions can shift.

 

The mains

Dry conditions across the north-eastern growing regions, predictions of an El Niño event for the second half of 2026, and a below average rainfall forecast for the next three months continue to impact lamb producer confidence.

 

Weekly lamb slaughter volumes are currently running 10% below the same period last year and export volumes have fallen alongside it by 13%. Despite lower overall exports, lamb shipments into the United States rose 17% YOY, reinforcing the continued strength of international demand. Lamb prices remain at historically high levels, finishing April at 1,183c/kg — an increase of 1% month-on-month. With the ongoing limitations on lamb supply, these high prices will remain for the next few months. 


Historically, May through August marks the sharpest seasonal contraction in lamb slaughter volumes. Last year, national slaughter volumes fell 36% between the May peak and August low point, and current conditions suggest another tight winter supply period is possible.

 



LOOKING AHEAD

RBA's new rate rises & consumer confidence


The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate in May to 4.35%, making it the third consecutive rate rise for the year. Consequently, Australian consumer confidence is becoming brittle, with the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropping to 64.1, the fourth-lowest reading on record.



Elevated inflation expectations and fuel prices continue to weigh on consumer sentiment, suggesting that broadscale consumer spending may somewhat subdue in the near term.



Disclaimer: The information contained in this blog is provided for general informational purposes only. While Andrews Meat Industries has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors — including environmental and seasonal conditions — can impact its accuracy and currency. For tailored advice relating to your business, please contact your Andrews Meat Industries sales representative.

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