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MARKET SNAPSHOT

  • Clara Leung
  • Jun 11
  • 3 min read

Thursday, 11 June 2026


Latest meat market conditions


China’s beef quota continues to loom ever closer, and all eyes are on the global market to see where Australian beef will go next.


BEEF


 The appetiser – what the market means for foodservice

Overall, global supply conditions remain the dominant feature of the beef market and it remains unclear as to what extent that will impact domestic supply in the short to medium term. Opportunistic buys have been popping up here and there of late, however: be sure to keep an eye on the AMI Specials email coming into your inbox or any specials from your Andrews Meat sales rep that might arise.


The mains

Global beef production for January-March 2026 was down 2.5% YOY, and the remainder of 2026 is expected to remain lower as supply constraints intensify in China, Brazil, Europe and the US. RaboResearch expects some of the biggest reductions in Brazil, where annual beef production is forecast to fall 4%; the US (3% forecasted decline); and China (decline of 2%).

 

In the meantime, Australian beef export volumes for May increased 18% YOY with large increases to the US (up 23% YOY), and South Korea (up 72% YOY). This is a new monthly record to South Korea and the highest US monthly export volume since 2014. Export volumes to China were up 14% with Australia surpassing 90% of the allocated 205,000 tonne quota in early June.

 

 

Taking the above factors into consideration, overall the domestic beef market seems to be looking stable as positive factors are currently offsetting any challenges, and Australia’s current production position, for the timebeing, is able to keep up with the greater export demand.

 

 

The USDA have confirmed additional cases of New World Screwworm in Texas and in New Mexico. At a time where the US herds continuously hit new historic lows, these cases will continue to further affect overall cattle numbers in the US.

 



LAMB

 

The appetiser – what the market means for foodservice

Domestic lamb prices are remaining steady as we head into the months of seasonally lower lamb availability.

 

The mains

Overall supply continues to be the main factor when it comes to lamb, as farmgate prices continue to remain elevated due to declining herd numbers and overall lower lamb production levels. Lower production volumes resulted in Australian lamb export volumes in May falling by 24% YOY. Volumes to China and the US are both down by 5% each as both markets remain strong in the face of declining Australian supplies.

 

The National Trade Indicator finished May at 1,185c/kg which is 26% higher than the same period in 2025 (see graph below). 




CHICKEN


The appetiser – what the market means for foodservice

Viewed as the more budget-friendly protein, chicken has cemented itself as Australia’s primary meat option, resulting in the domestic foodservice market competing with supermarkets and quick service retail for supply.


The mains

Cost of living pressures remain a key driver behind the growing demand as chicken meat presents an attractively priced option for general consumers to meet their protein needs, especially when compared to beef and lamb.

 

In the long-term, the Australian industry’s potential growth is shadowed by the global spread of the H5N1 avian influenza. As of 9 June 2026, Australia remains the only continent free from this specific variant. Should H5N1 breach Australian borders, mandatory flock depopulation would significantly hamper the industry, with free-range producers facing the most immediate threat. Any subsequent transmission to broiler facilities would significantly impact overall poultry meat production.

 


LOOKING AHEAD

Temporary fuel excise set to end on 30 June 2026

While the temporary excise cut has assisted diesel prices in retreating from their March peaks, this relief will end on 30 June 2026. The government has confirmed the reduction will not be extended.

 

 

As it currently stands, average fuel prices across Australia’s largest cities have fallen in the past week, though they are still above prices pre-Iran conflict. Fuel prices are set to rise at the end of the month when the federal government’s temporary fuel tax discount ends.

 



Disclaimer: The information contained in this blog is provided for general informational purposes only. While Andrews Meat Industries has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors — including environmental and seasonal conditions — can impact its accuracy and currency. For tailored advice relating to your business, please contact your Andrews Meat Industries sales representative.

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